Beyond the Drought: Why Breadfruit (Artocarpus altilis) is Emerging as Indonesia’s Climate-Resilient Food Sovereignty Solution

JAKARTA — As the severe impacts of a prolonged dry season and intensifying El Niño phenomenon grip the Indonesian archipelago, the country’s agricultural sector faces an unprecedented threat. With vast stretches of farmland parched and traditional staple crops buckling under extreme heat, scientists and agricultural experts are urgently looking toward neglected and underutilized plant species. Among them, the humble breadfruit (Artocarpus altilis)—locally known as sukun—is stepping into the spotlight as a powerhouse of climate resilience, offering a viable lifeline for future food security.

Main Facts: The Double Blow of El Niño and Parched Landscapes

According to weather forecasts released by the Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics (BMKG), dry atmospheric conditions continue to dominate nearly all of Indonesia. Approximately 81 percent of the country’s Seasonal Zones (ZOM) have officially entered the dry season. More alarmingly, BMKG’s monitoring network recorded 1,637 monitoring points experiencing extreme Days Without Rain (HTH)—surpassing 60 consecutive days without a single drop of precipitation.

This prolonged dry spell, compounded by a strengthening El Niño, has exponentially increased ecological stress, manifesting as widespread forest and land fires. Satellite monitoring data captured hundreds of high-confidence hotspots distributed across key islands:

• Kalimantan: 627 hotspots
• Papua and Maluku: 200 hotspots
• Sulawesi: 104 hotspots
• Sumatra: 86 hotspots (triggering cross-border haze)

The agricultural toll has been equally severe. The Ministry of Agriculture confirmed that the acreage of paddy fields impacted by drought has surged to a staggering 50,000 hectares. The vast majority of these vulnerable zones comprise rain-fed agricultural lands (lahan tadah hujan) and upland areas lacking adequate irrigation infrastructure.

Amidst this unfolding agricultural crisis, local communities have largely overlooked a powerful, climate-proof alternative: the breadfruit tree. Boasting a robust root system and a fruiting cycle completely independent of fickle rainfall patterns, breadfruit stands ready to rewrite the playbook for national food sovereignty.

Chronology of Climate Strain and Scientific Discovery

The collision between modern climate volatility and botanical resilience has been meticulously documented over recent years through a series of stark meteorological warnings and progressive scientific studies:

• August 2022: Researchers at Northwestern University published a landmark study in the journal PLOS Climate, mapping the global climate suitability of breadfruit using six different predictive models. The study declared breadfruit a neglected crop with exceptional potential to sustain low-latitude food systems under extreme climate scenarios.
• April 2024: A team of researchers from the University of Indonesia (UI), led by Suyud Warno Utomo, published a study in Frontiers in Plant Science. Utilizing WorldClim climate data, the team mapped breadfruit cultivation suitability in Central Java, demonstrating the tree’s capacity to thrive in conditions lethal to other staple crops.
• 2024: Researchers from Universitas Pattimura, led by Amat Reniwurwarin, published a morphological study in the Agrosilvopasture-Tech journal. They investigated breadfruit populations in Ohoitahit and Danar villages (Key Kecil Islands, Southeast Maluku)—a harsh region characterized by a meager annual rainfall of 200–400 millimeters and a prolonged dry season spanning June to November. The findings confirmed that the trees flourished despite the severe climate.
• September 13–14, 2026: BMKG released updated seasonal outlooks highlighting the persistence of hyper-dry conditions and thousands of extreme dry days, while satellite data flagged hundreds of active hotspots across Indonesia’s major islands.
• Mid-September 2026: The Ministry of Agriculture officially reported that drought-impacted rice paddies had breached the 50,000-hectare mark, accelerating government searches for drought-tolerant crops.

Supporting Data: Breadfruit vs. Conventional Staple Crops

When compared to conventional carbohydrate sources like rice, corn, and wheat, breadfruit demonstrates structural, environmental, and nutritional superiority in the face of global warming.

1. Superior Climate Resilience

While traditional crops like rice demand extensive, consistent water inputs and must be replanted every single season, breadfruit is a hardy, long-lived perennial. Once established, mature breadfruit trees can endure dry spells lasting three to four months without suffering catastrophic yield losses.

2. Longevity and Carbon Sequestration

Breadfruit trees can live and bear fruit productively for more than 50 years. Because they do not require annual replanting (annual replanting), they demand significantly lower agricultural energy inputs. Furthermore, their expansive woody biomass acts as an effective carbon sink, actively drawing down atmospheric carbon dioxide.

3. Nutritional and Yield Parity

Nutritionally, breadfruit matches—and in some metrics surpasses—paddy rice, wheat, and corn. Known globally as breadfruit due to its soft, bread-like crumb texture when cooked, the fruit is rich in complex carbohydrates, essential amino acids, and vital minerals.

4. Vast Geographic Suitability

The UI study in Frontiers in Plant Science calculated that suitable cultivation areas for breadfruit in Central Java alone span 9,737.778 square kilometers—representing 28.35 percent of the province’s total land area. Projections indicate that high-suitability zones will actually expand eastward by 2070, even if global temperature increases are successfully capped at 1 degree Celsius. Globally, Northwestern University’s research confirms that breadfruit’s climate-suitable zones will remain remarkably stable, even under worst-case climate scenarios.

Official Responses and Expert Insights

Government agencies and academic institutions are gradually waking up to the strategic necessity of diversifying Indonesia’s food basket away from mono-cropping paradigms.

The Ministry of Agriculture, while currently firefighting immediate crop failures through emergency pumps and quick-yielding dryland seeds, has faced mounting pressure from food security analysts to integrate perennial native crops into national mitigation frameworks.

Meanwhile, scientific consensus emphasizes the ecological harmony of breadfruit cultivation. Researchers note that most cultivated breadfruit varieties are seedless and propagated vegetatively (clonally), eliminating any risk of them becoming invasive species when introduced to new reforestation or agroforestry zones.

"Breadfruit possesses the potential not only to adapt, but to thrive," noted Suyud Warno Utomo and his colleagues in their Central Java study.

Echoing this sentiment from the eastern islands, Amat Reniwurwarin’s team observed during their field research in Southeast Maluku: "Breadfruit in the Kei Islands is strongly indicated to be tolerant of drought stress."

Internationally, institutions like The Breadfruit Institute at the National Tropical Botanical Garden (NTBG) in Hawaii have long championed the crop as an exemplary tool for ecological conservation and sustainable nutrition—a vision that Indonesian policymakers are beginning to take seriously.

Implications for Indonesia’s Future Food Security

The implications of the ongoing El Niño cycle—projected by BMKG to linger well into the first quarter of 2027—extend far beyond temporary economic losses. They expose structural vulnerabilities in an agricultural system overly reliant on irrigated lowland paddy farming.

The transition toward climate-resilient agriculture requires shifting focus toward Neglected and Underutilized Species (NUS). Integrating breadfruit into sustainable agroforestry systems and mixed-crop orchards offers a triple-win solution:

1. Drought Proofing: Securing local caloric production in areas where rice cultivation is failing due to rising temperatures and water scarcity.
2. Environmental Restoration: Reducing the overuse of chemical fertilizers and pesticides (agrochemicals), preventing soil degradation, and avoiding the destructive opening of natural forests.
3. Climate Mitigation: Enhancing regional carbon sequestration through permanent tree cover rather than carbon-releasing seasonal tillage.

As Indonesia navigates an increasingly volatile climatic future, bridging modern scientific modeling with indigenous crop stewardship will be paramount. By recognizing the quiet resilience of the breadfruit tree, the nation can transform an unfolding agricultural crisis into an opportunity for lasting food sovereignty.